Android’s toughest task: convert iphone users
I’m EXTREMELY excited to see what happens in the next 6-18 months with the smartphone market! The new Droid commercial is taking a pretty huge shot at the iPhone, but as a die hard iPhone user, I think android’s toughest penetration will be existing iPhone users. Aside from the phone, iPhone users make a huge investment by buying apps (i’m including free ones here as well). The reason I include free ones is that people are so used to their apps, I know I am. Until the Android appstore more or less mirrors the iPhone Appstore, why would I ever switch. Also, we can’t forget about the apps I paid for! The average iPhone user has spent $80 on apps! That’s not a little bit of money, considering if I were to re-buy all the apps on a new Android phone, I’d have to spend the same amount of money for apps I already own? No thanks! I’ll be very interested to see how Android phones try to convert iPhone users, if at all.
Now, I did say I’m exited to see what happens in the next 6-18 months. Fred Wilson (@fredwilson) wrote a great blog post about this being a huge week mobile web/market and more will come. I won’t regurgitate his thoughts here, but he touched on a great point, he said that this week brought ”A real competitor to the iPhone - the Droid.” This is HUGE!! This is not just HUGE for Verizon customers, or android lovers, but HUGE for iPhone customers. Fred Wilson, nor myself are the first to say this, but the fact that the iPhone finally (after almost 2.5 years) has a viable competitor, will, in my opinion, benefit iPhone users the most. Apple has momentum, resources, and market influence they have never enjoyed in the history of the company. They WILL use it to compete and upgrade and do what ever they can to crush the competition.
Some people, including Fred have mentioned that the current situation, with the iPhone being a closed platform, and android being open is analogous to when Microsoft basically copied and then crushed apple with windows. I cannot imagine that Steve Jobs and Apple will make the same mistake twice. Therefore, as I said, I’m very excited to see what happens in the next 6-18 months in the smartphone industry. I don’t think that releasing the iPhone on other US carriers is all that will let Apple continue to dominate, they need something more, something bigger. They need to out do themselves!
